CAS Exam MAS-II Fall 2018, Question 34

Study guide: Exam MAS-II

The Metropolis algorithm is used to estimate the posterior distribution of a parameter \theta, which represents the probability of a flipped coin landing on heads.

Assume the following:

• The prior for \theta is beta(1, 1)
• Two heads were observed in five flips
• Each proposed step in the Metropolis algorithm is the sum of the current position of the sampler and a draw from the proposal distribution

Three proposal distributions for the Metropolis algorithm are considered.

• I. beta(2, 5)
• II. uniform(0, 1)
• III. uniform(current \theta - 0.1, current \theta + 0.1)

Determine which of the proposal distributions above are valid for this analysis.

• A) I only
• B) II only
• C) III only
• D) I, II and III
• E) The answer is not given by (A), (B), (C), or (D)

Answer this question and see the worked solution

Concepts tested

• Bayesian
• Markov Chain
• Beta
• Uniform Continuous Distribution
• Markov Chain Monte Carlo

More questions from this set

• CAS Exam MAS-II Fall 2018, Question 33
• CAS Exam MAS-II Fall 2018, Question 35