Actuarial Notes

CAS Exam MAS-II Fall 2018, Question 33

Study guide: Exam MAS-II

You are given multiple different Bayesian linear models. To make a better prediction, you would like to consider all the provided models. To accomplish this, you are given the following options to evaluate:

  • I. Average the predictions of the multiple models
  • II. Average the parameter values of the multiple models
  • III. Discard and do not report on any but the best-performing model

Determine which of the above options are valid.

  • A) Option I only
  • B) Option II only
  • C) Option III only
  • D) Options I, II and III
  • E) The answer is not given by (A), (B), (C), or (D)

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