Actuarial Notes

CAS Exam MAS-II Spring 2019, Question 24

Study guide: Exam MAS-II

You are building a model to understand student test scores. Your model is as follows:

y_{ij} = \beta_0 + x_{ij}\beta_1 + \tau_i + \epsilon_{ij}
\begin{align*}
\beta_0 &\sim \text{Normal}(\mu, \sigma_0^2) \\
\beta_1 &\sim \text{Normal}(0, \sigma_1^2) \\
\tau_i &\sim \text{Normal}(0, \sigma_2^2) \\
\mu &\sim \text{Normal}(0, \sigma_3^2) \\
\epsilon_{ij} &\sim \text{Normal}(0, \sigma_4^2)
\end{align*}

where student j in classroom i has a final exam score of y_{ij} and a midterm score of x_{ij}.

You feel that the classroom data is not dependable and, therefore, you want to shrink the classroom-specific effects toward the overall mean.

Determine how you would adjust the hyperparameters for this model.

  • A) Reduce the value of \sigma_0^2
  • B) Reduce the value of \sigma_1^2
  • C) Reduce the value of \sigma_2^2
  • D) Reduce the value of \sigma_3^2
  • E) Reduce the value of \sigma_4^2

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