CAS Exam MAS-II Spring 2019, Question 23
Study guide: Exam MAS-II
A process is assumed to follow a Binomial distribution with probability of success equal to \pi. The process is observed for 10 outcomes and all 10 of the observed outcomes were successes. A model is fit to this observed data and the prior distribution for \pi in this model is given below:
\pi^{-1}(1-\pi)^{-1}; \quad \pi \in [0,1]Calculate the posterior mean of \pi.
- A) Less than or equal to 0.60
- B) Greater than 0.60 but less than or equal to 0.75
- C) Greater than 0.75 but less than or equal to 0.90
- D) Greater than 0.90
- E) No posterior mean exists. The posterior distribution is improper.
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