Actuarial Notes

CAS Exam MAS-I Spring 2018, Question 28

Study guide: Exam MAS-I

You are given the following information:

  • A statistician uses two models to predict the probability of success, \pi, of a binomial random variable.
  • One of the models uses a logistic link function and the other uses a probit link function.
  • There is one predictor variable, X, and an intercept in each model.
  • Both models happen to produce same coefficient estimates \hat\beta_0 = 0.02 and \hat\beta_1 = 0.3.
  • You are interested in the predicted probabilities of success at x = 4.

Calculate the absolute difference in the predicted values from the two models at x = 4.

  • A) Less than 0.1
  • B) At least 0.1, but less than 0.2
  • C) At least 0.2, but less than 0.3
  • D) At least 0.3, but less than 0.4
  • E) At least 0.4

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