Actuarial Notes

CAS Exam MAS-I Fall 2018, Question 11

Study guide: Exam MAS-I

A scientist has discovered a way to create a new element. This scientist studied the new element and observed some of its properties:

  • The element has a lifespan of 1 week, then it evaporates
  • The element can produce offspring
  • The creation of offspring is distributed as follows:
Number of Offspring Probability
0 0.75
1 0.20
2 0.05
  • The probability that the element will eventually die out is \pi_0 = 1

Determine which of the following best describes the above process.

  • A) Branching process
  • B) Gambler's ruin
  • C) Periodic Markov chain
  • D) Time reversible Markov chains
  • E) None of (A), (B), (C), or (D) describe this process

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