Actuarial Notes

CAS Exam MAS-I Fall 2018, Question 10

Study guide: Exam MAS-I

You are given the following information about when a fair coin is flipped:

  • If the outcome is Heads, 1 chip is won
  • If the outcome is Tails, 1 chip is lost
  • A gambler starts with 20 chips and will stop playing when he either has lost all his chips or he reaches 50 chips
  • Of the first 10 flips, 7 are Heads and 3 are Tails

Calculate the probability that the gambler will lose all of his chips, given the results of the first 10 flips.

  • A) Less than 0.5
  • B) At least 0.5, but less than 0.6
  • C) At least 0.6, but less than 0.7
  • D) At least 0.7, but less than 0.8
  • E) At least 0.8

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