CAS Exam 5 Fall 2015, Question 24
Study guide: Exam 5
Given the following data as of December 31, 2014:
Paid Claims Only ($000) as of (months):
| Accident Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 1,000 | 1,100 | 1,157 | 1,178 |
| 2012 | 1,500 | 1,650 | 1,733 | |
| 2013 | 2,000 | 2,200 | ||
| 2014 | 2,500 |
Paid ALAE ($000) as of (months):
| Accident Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 100 | 220 | 347 | 424 |
| 2012 | 150 | 330 | 520 | |
| 2013 | 200 | 440 | ||
| 2014 | 375 |
| Accident Year | Selected Ultimate Claims Only ($000) |
|---|---|
| 2011 | 1,178 |
| 2012 | 1,768 |
| 2013 | 2,356 |
| 2014 | 2,945 |
- Assume that no development occurs after 48 months.
Part a (1.5 points)
Calculate ultimate ALAE using the multiplicative development technique applied to the ratio of paid ALAE-to-paid claims only for accident years 2012, 2013, and 2014.
Part b (1.25 points)
Calculate ultimate ALAE using the additive alternative approach to the technique in part a. above for accident years 2012, 2013, and 2014.
Part c (0.5 points)
Select and justify a reasonable estimate of ultimate ALAE for accident year 2014 based on the estimates calculated in parts a. and b. above.
Answer this question and see the worked solution