Actuarial Notes

CAS Exam 5 Fall 2015, Question 24

Study guide: Exam 5

Given the following data as of December 31, 2014:

Paid Claims Only ($000) as of (months):

Accident Year 12 24 36 48
2011 1,000 1,100 1,157 1,178
2012 1,500 1,650 1,733
2013 2,000 2,200
2014 2,500

Paid ALAE ($000) as of (months):

Accident Year 12 24 36 48
2011 100 220 347 424
2012 150 330 520
2013 200 440
2014 375
Accident Year Selected Ultimate Claims Only ($000)
2011 1,178
2012 1,768
2013 2,356
2014 2,945
  • Assume that no development occurs after 48 months.

Part a (1.5 points)

Calculate ultimate ALAE using the multiplicative development technique applied to the ratio of paid ALAE-to-paid claims only for accident years 2012, 2013, and 2014.

Part b (1.25 points)

Calculate ultimate ALAE using the additive alternative approach to the technique in part a. above for accident years 2012, 2013, and 2014.

Part c (0.5 points)

Select and justify a reasonable estimate of ultimate ALAE for accident year 2014 based on the estimates calculated in parts a. and b. above.

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Concepts tested

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