CAS Exam 5 Fall 2015, Question 25
Study guide: Exam 5
An actuary has performed the following unpaid claims analysis as of December 31, 2014:
| Accident Year | Claims as of December 31, 2014: Reported ($000) | Claims as of December 31, 2014: Paid ($000) | Development Technique Ultimate Claims: Reported ($000) | Development Technique Ultimate Claims: Paid ($000) | Selected Ultimate Claims ($000) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 10,000 | 4,800 | 12,500 | 12,000 | 12,250 |
| 2014 | 7,500 | 2,200 | 15,000 | 11,000 | 13,000 |
Part a (1 point)
For accident year 2014, determine the expected incremental reported and paid claims in calendar year 2015 based on the development techniques.
Part b (1 point)
For accident year 2014, determine the expected reported and paid claims in calendar year 2015 based on the actuary's ultimate claim selections.
Part c (0.5 points)
Assume for accident year 2014, the reported claims are 3,300,000 and the paid claims are 2,400,000 in calendar year 2015. Assess whether the actuary's estimate of the ultimate claims should change.
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