Actuarial Notes

SOA Exam P Sample Question 546

Study guide: Exam P-1

A large lot of circuit boards contains 10% that are defective. A test for defective boards is correct with 80% probability if the board is defective and correct with only 40% probability if the board is not defective.

A randomly selected board is tested and the test indicates that the board is defective.

Calculate the probability that the board is defective.

  • A) 2/25
  • B) 1/10
  • C) 2/17
  • D) 4/31
  • E) 2/11

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