Exam MAS-II Practice Question 23
Study guide: Exam MAS-II
Monthly reported claim counts with no trend or seasonality are forecast by simple exponential smoothing with smoothing parameter \alpha = 0.2:
a_t = \alpha x_t + (1 - \alpha)\,a_{t-1}The smoothed level after month 10 is a_{10} = 150. The counts for months 11 and 12 are x_{11} = 170 and x_{12} = 140.
The forecast for every future month equals the latest smoothed level.
Calculate the forecast of the claim count for month 15, made at the end of month 12.
- A) 140.0
- B) 145.2
- C) 151.2
- D) 154.0
- E) 166.0
No current syllabus covers this question; it is kept for the record.
Answer this question and see the worked solution