Actuarial Notes

CAS Exam MAS-II Spring 2019, Question 35

Study guide: Exam MAS-II

Suppose we want to model the standard deviation \sigma_i of a Gaussian distribution for each observation such that it is a function of a predictor variable x_i:

\begin{align*}
y_i &\sim \text{Normal}(\mu, \sigma_i^2) \\
\mu &\sim \text{Normal}(0, 25) \\
g(\sigma_i) &= \alpha + \beta x_i \\
\alpha &\sim \text{Uniform}(-5, 5) \\
\beta &\sim \text{Normal}(0, 2)
\end{align*}

where g is a link function.

Three candidates for g are considered:

I. g(z) = \log(z) II. g(z) = (z-1)^{\frac{1}{\tau}}, where \tau = 2 III. g(z) = e^{z}

Determine which of the candidate link functions would be appropriate for this model.

  • A) None
  • B) I and II only
  • C) I and III only
  • D) II and III only
  • E) The answer is not given by (A), (B), (C), or (D)

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