Actuarial Notes

CAS Exam MAS-II Spring 2019, Question 16

Study guide: Exam MAS-II

Your company implements a new marketing strategy for agents. It is implemented under the direction of two marketing directors who each lead the agents in two different states. You build a Linear Mixed Model to model the policy growth over the next year after this new strategy is implemented. Below is the model output from this Linear Mixed Model.

Solution for Fixed Effects

Effect Location Estimate Standard Error
Intercept 86.75 61.39
Location Rural -272.71 63.82
Location Town -179.56 47.62
Location City 0.00 0.00
Tenure -14.66 2.88
Beginning Policies 0.33 0.07

Solution for Random Effects

Effect Director State Estimate Standard Error Prediction
Intercept D1 -21.66 32.39
Intercept D1 S1 5.85 15.94
Intercept D1 S2 1.89 15.93
Intercept D2 21.66 32.39
Intercept D2 S3 -3.13 15.93
Intercept D2 S4 7.10 15.92

Consider an agent with the following characteristics:

Location Tenure Beginning Policies Director State
Town 2 921 D1 S2

Calculate the expected policy growth for this agent over this time period according to this Linear Mixed Model.

  • A) Less than 140
  • B) At least 140 but less than 150
  • C) At least 150 but less than 160
  • D) At least 160 but less than 170
  • E) At least 170

Answer this question and see the worked solution

Concepts tested

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