Actuarial Notes

CAS Exam MAS-II Fall 2019, Question 17

Study guide: Exam MAS-II

A team of data scientists is analyzing renewal rates on personal auto policies for insurance company XYZ. Using historical renewal data and a binomial distribution, they have calculated the posterior distribution displayed below:

Identify which of the following ranges is most likely the 30% highest posterior density interval for renewal rate.

  • A) [0.00, 0.30]
  • B) [0.15, 0.85]
  • C) [0.40, 0.80]
  • D) [0.60, 0.70]
  • E) [0.70, 1.00]

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