Actuarial Notes

CAS Exam MAS-II Fall 2018, Question 36

Study guide: Exam MAS-II

A training data set contains eight observations for two predictor variables, X_1 and X_2, and a response variable, Y. The response Y has three possible classes P, N, and U.

i X_1 X_2 Y Distance from (x_{1i}, x_{2i}) to (3, 2)
1 4.1 3.0 P 1.5
2 -2.6 -3.0 N 7.5
3 -1.1 1.3 U 4.2
4 0.0 1.2 U 3.1
5 -3.0 -5.0 N 9.2
6 2.0 2.0 U 1.0
7 -3.1 -2.0 N 7.3
8 3.2 3.1 P 1.1

Three models are constructed using K-Nearest Neighbors and the data set above to predict Y for the two-dimensional space of predictors X_1 and X_2.

  • Model I: K-Nearest Neighbors with K=1.
  • Model II: K-Nearest Neighbors with K=3.
  • Model III: K-Nearest Neighbors with K=7.

Each model is used to classify the point (3, 2).

Determine the predicted response Y at this point using each of the three models.

  • A) Model I: Y = P, Model II: Y = P, Model III: Y = P
  • B) Model I: Y = P, Model II: Y = P, Model III: Y = U
  • C) Model I: Y = U, Model II: Y = P, Model III: Y = P
  • D) Model I: Y = U, Model II: Y = P, Model III: Y = U
  • E) The answer is not given by (A), (B), (C), or (D).

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