CAS Exam MAS-I Fall 2019, Question 8
Study guide: Exam MAS-I
You are given:
- Mary plays a game repeatedly
- Each game ends with her either winning or losing
- Mary's chances of winning her next game depends on the outcome of the prior game
P[\text{Winning after a win}] = \min(80\%, P[\text{Winning prior game}] + 10\%)P[\text{Winning after a loss}] = 40\%
- Mary just played her
10^{\text{th}}game and lost.
Calculate the probability that Mary will lose her 13^{\text{th}} game.
- A) Less than 40%
- B) At least 40%, but less than 45%
- C) At least 45%, but less than 50%
- D) At least 50%, but less than 55%
- E) At least 55%
Answer this question and see the worked solution