Actuarial Notes

CAS Exam MAS-I Spring 2018, Question 3

Study guide: Exam MAS-I

The number of cars passing through the Lexington Tunnel follows a Poisson process with rate:

\lambda(t) =
\begin{cases}
16 + 2.5t & \text{for } 0 < t \le 8 \\
52 - 2t & \text{for } 8 < t \le 12 \\
-20 + 4t & \text{for } 12 < t \le 18 \\
160 - 6t & \text{for } 18 < t \le 24
\end{cases}

Calculate the probability that exactly 50 cars pass through the tunnel between times t = 11 and t = 13.

  • A) Less than 0.01
  • B) At least 0.01, but less than 0.02
  • C) At least 0.02, but less than 0.03
  • D) At least 0.03, but less than 0.04
  • E) At least 0.04

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