CAS Exam 5 Spring 2017, Question 19
Study guide: Exam 5
Given the following information evaluated as of December 31, 2016:
Cumulative Paid Claims ($000) as of (months)
| Accident Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 1,000 | 2,000 | 3,100 | 3,410 |
| 2014 | 1,500 | 3,300 | 4,785 | |
| 2015 | 2,000 | 3,600 | ||
| 2016 | 2,500 |
Cumulative Reported Claims ($000) as of (months)
| Accident Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 3,000 | 3,600 | 3,960 | 4,000 |
| 2014 | 4,200 | 5,250 | 5,775 | |
| 2015 | 5,100 | 6,630 | ||
| 2016 | 7,500 |
Case Outstanding ($000) as of (months)
| Accident Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 2,000 | 1,600 | 860 | 590 |
| 2014 | 2,700 | 1,950 | 990 | |
| 2015 | 3,100 | 3,030 | ||
| 2016 | 5,000 |
Part a (0.75 points)
Calculate the expected incremental reported claims for accident year 2016 in calendar year 2019 using the reported claim development technique.
Part b (2 points)
Calculate the expected incremental reported claims for accident year 2016 in calendar year 2019 using the incremental paid to previous case outstanding technique.
Part c (0.5 points)
Briefly describe whether the case outstanding technique is appropriate to project ultimate claims when performing an analysis on each of the following bases:
i. Report year ii. Accident year
Answer this question and see the worked solution