CAS Exam 5 Fall 2014, Question 16
Study guide: Exam 5
The following information is available for an insurer:
Reported Claim Counts as of (months)
| Accident Half-Year | 6 | 12 | 18 | 24 | 30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-1 | 28 | 35 | 39 | 39 | 39 |
| 2011-2 | 40 | 80 | 140 | 168 | 168 |
| 2012-1 | 20 | 25 | 28 | 28 | |
| 2012-2 | 32 | 64 | 112 | ||
| 2013-1 | 36 | 45 | |||
| 2013-2 | 35 |
- There is no development after 30 months.
- The actuary's estimate of ultimate claim counts for accident year 2013 is 152.
Assess the reasonability of the actuary's estimate of ultimate claim counts.
Part a (1.75 points)
Answer this question and see the worked solution