Actuarial Notes

RPEC 2026 Mortality Improvement Update

By Society of Actuaries Research Institute Retirement Plans Experience Committee · Society of Actuaries Research Institute · 2026

An October 2026 report of the Retirement Plans Experience Committee (RPEC) of the Society of Actuaries Research Institute analysing recent U.S. population mortality experience with respect to mortality improvement assumptions for measuring the obligations of U.S. retirement programs. It finds that mortality for the U.S. population ages 65+ has generally returned to the levels expected by projecting 2019 mortality rates with Mortality Improvement Scale MP-2021, states that RPEC will not release a new mortality improvement scale in 2026, and continues to view MP-2021 as a reasonable best-estimate scale for retirement plan actuarial valuations, especially for ages 65+.

Executive Summary

  • The ratio of actual to expected mortality for ages 65+ exceeded 120% at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, declined to approximately 101% in 2025, and was 98.7% for the 12 months from July 2025 through June 2026.
  • After excluding deaths attributed to COVID-19, estimated annual mortality improvement rates for 2010–2019, 2010–2025, and 2010–2025 excluding 2020–2023 are all approximately 0.5%, comparable to the rate predicted by MP-2021; see Mortality.
  • There is not yet enough post-pandemic experience to develop a new scale using RPEC's traditional methods; actuaries may consider plan-specific adjustments.
  • The analysis uses CDC death-count data and Social Security area population estimates; because recent population estimates are subject to revision, the A/E ratios should be viewed as estimates.

Section 1: Potential Timing of Release of an Updated MP-Scale

  • MP-2021, the most recent scale, reflects mortality experience through 2019.
  • RPEC's traditional methodology applies third-order Whittaker-Henderson graduation with a two-year step-back, so it needs at least five years of post-pandemic experience; an updated MP scale developed that way would likely not be available before fall 2030.

Section 2: Data Sources

  • 2.1: Data Sources
  • 2.2: Annual Refinements of Historical U.S. Population Estimates

Section 3: Recent U.S. Mortality Trends

  • 3.1: Results for the 65+ Population
  • 3.2: Results By 10-Year Age Group
  • 3.3: COVID-19's Diminishing Role as a Cause of Death

Section 4: The Trajectory of Mortality Improvement Rates for Ages 65+

Section 5: Considerations for Alternative Mortality Improvement Scale Development

  • 5.1: Application of Loads to MP-2021
  • 5.2: Changes to Long-Term Improvement Rates
  • 5.3: Potential Impact of GLP-1 Utilization

Section 6: Other Sources of Information

  • 6.1: Social Security Administration Approach to Reflecting Pandemic Mortality
  • 6.2: Approaches in Other Countries to Reflecting Pandemic Mortality

Section 7: Reliance and Limitations

Section 8: Acknowledgments

References

Appendix A. Data Sources

  • A.1: Death Counts
  • A.2: Exposure Data
  • A.3: Rationale for Using Social Security Data for Exposures

Appendix B: Impact of Exposure Revisions

Appendix C: Age Standardization

Appendix D: Expected Death Rates

Appendix E: Excess Mortality Estimated Using Medicare Data

Appendix F: Theoretical Impact of Historical Data Revisions on MP-2021

Sources