Actuarial Notes

2025 Actual Loss Ratio Exhibit: Private Passenger Automobile Excluding Farmers, Ontario

By General Insurance Statistical Agency · 2026 · AUTO1005-ON

GISA's all-industry actual loss ratio exhibit for Ontario private passenger automobile insurance, excluding farmers, for accident years 2021 to 2025. Issued with GISA Bulletin No. 2026-34 of July 20, 2026, it shows the number of vehicles, premium and incurred loss information valued as of December 31, 2025, on a factored basis, with Notes to Users, selected age-to-ultimate implied incurred loss development factors and unallocated loss adjustment expense factors. The exhibit is bilingual (English and French) and is one of the high-level exhibits GISA publishes at no charge.

Notes to Users – Background

  • The 2025 Automobile Insurance Exhibit Introduction, AUTO1003-ON, should be used in conjunction with this exhibit.
  • The exhibit is published on an accident year basis — losses arising from incidents occurring January to December of each stated year.
  • Development factors have been applied to claim counts and amounts to project them to the estimated ultimate level; the implied incurred development factors come from a valuation of ultimates report by GISA's consulting actuary (Ernst & Young LLP), based on raw incurred amount and count triangles by accident half-year for 2011-1 to 2025-2 from the Ontario loss development exhibit.
  • The loss experience is adjusted for loss development and unallocated loss adjustment expenses only: no adjustment for commissions, premium taxes, general operating expenses or the Ontario Health Levy, and no trend factors.
  • Readers should consider the 2021 actual loss ratio anomalies due to COVID-19.

Notes to Users – Legislative Reforms

  • 1 History of Reforms — from the 1990 Ontario Motorist Protection Plan through Bill 164, Bill 59, Bill 198/Bill 5, Reg 34/10, Bill 15 and Bill 91.
  • 2 Current Legislation — the changes introduced under Bill 15 and Bill 91, by coverage, following the government's 2013 Cost and Rate Reduction Strategy.

Data Adjustments

  • The implied factors and derived ultimates for the most recent periods carry more uncertainty than usual, from changes in major writers' case reserving and claims handling practices for Bodily Injury and Accident Benefits.

Glossary

  • The coverages: Third Party Liability (Bodily Injury, Property Damage and Direct Compensation Property Damage), Accident Benefits, Uninsured Automobile, Underinsured Motorist, Collision, Comprehensive, All Perils and Specified Perils.

Implied Age-to-Ultimate Development Factors

  • Implied incurred amount of claims and implied incurred number of claims, by accident half-year (2021-1 to 2025-2) and coverage.

Other Factors

  • 1 Unallocated Loss Adjustment Expense Factors — by accident year, 2021 to 2025; each is one plus the ratio of calendar year incurred internal loss adjustment expenses to calendar year direct incurred claims.
  • 2 Assessment of Health System Costs — no factors are applied to the exhibits to reflect the Ontario health levy.
  • 3 The Ontario Harmonized Sales Tax — no adjustment is applied to prior-period claim costs.

Private Passenger Excluding Farmers

  • For each coverage and accident year: written and earned vehicles, written and earned premiums, number of claims, incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses, claim frequency per 100 earned vehicles, average cost per claim, average earned premium, incurred claim cost per earned vehicle, and earned incurred loss ratio.
  • Coverages shown: Third Party Liability (with Bodily Injury, Property Damage and Direct Compensation), Accident Benefits, Uninsured Automobile, Underinsured Motorist, and Collision, Comprehensive, All Perils and Specified Perils — each in total ("All codes") and at two deductible levels (300 and 500, or 500 and 1,000).

Sources