Actuarial Notes

CAD 466M - CatIQ Discloses Final Industry Loss Estimate for the Ontario and Quebec Ice Storm of March 2025

By Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc. · 2026

CatIQ's fifth and final industry insured loss estimate for the ice storm that struck Ontario and Quebec from March 28 to 31, 2025, released in Toronto on March 31, 2026. The estimate, a snapshot of the insurance market one year after the event, is CAD 466 million, covering property (commercial and residential) and vehicle claims including additional loss adjustment expenses. CatIQ is the Toronto-based provider of industry-wide catastrophe insurance data and a subsidiary of PERILS; the release is the public notice of a figure whose detail sits on its subscriber platform.

The estimate

  • Fifth and final estimate: CAD 466 million of insured catastrophe loss, one year after the event.
  • Lines covered: property, commercial and residential, and vehicle (motor), including additional loss adjustment expenses.
  • A marginal decrease from the six-month estimate of CAD 490 million issued on September 30, 2025, mainly from lower personal lines losses in Ontario.
  • Meteorological detail (ice accumulation, damage reports, news items) is on the CatIQ subscriber platform, not in the release.

The event

  • Freezing rain fell over southern Ontario and Quebec from March 28 to 31, 2025; parts of the Kawarthas recorded up to 35 hours of it and up to 25 mm of ice.
  • The ice damaged power lines and trees and left hundreds of thousands of customers without power, for weeks in the hardest-hit areas.
  • The release places it among the region's recurring ice events, recalling 1998 and the April storms of 2018 and 2023.

Comment

  • Caroline Floyd, Director of CatIQ, attributes the decline to personal lines losses that had grown faster than usual by the six-month mark, and reads it as insurers having received the outstanding claims and released additional reserves.
  • She notes that more than 90 percent of personal lines claims were closed, in line with what CatIQ expects one year after an event of this size.

About CatIQ and PERILS

  • CatIQ (Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc.), a subsidiary of Zurich-based PERILS AG, provides loss and exposure indices for Canadian natural and human-made catastrophes through a subscription platform.
  • Use of CatIQ and PERILS exposure and loss data other than under a valid licence is prohibited.

Sources