Deciding How to Decide

By Hugh Courtney, Dan Lovallo and Carmina Clarke · Harvard Business Review · 2013 · CP311-111-26

A Harvard Business Review article of November 2013 (reprint R1311C) on matching the decision-making tool to the decision. It says most businesses rely on traditional capital-budgeting tools for strategic decisions although these assume complete and reliable information, and it gives a model for choosing among decision tools on three factors: how well you understand the variables that determine success, how well you can predict the range of outcomes, and how centralized the relevant information is. It illustrates the model with decisions McDonald's executives might face.

On the syllabus

Exam CP-311 — CP311-111-26: Deciding How to Decide; outcomes 3a and 4b.

Contents unavailable The full article is behind Harvard Business Review's paywall, and the SOA supplies it as a study note sold through its online store. Only the publisher's summary is public, so this page records the article's citation, that summary and its assignment from the syllabus.

Sources

Deciding How to Decide (Harvard Business Review, November 2013) — the document's record: title, authors, date, reprint number and the publisher's summary used for the lead; the article itself is not free to read
CP 311 Syllabus, Nov 2026/Mar 2027 (SOA) — the reading (CP311-111-26) and its learning outcomes
CP 311 Introductory Study Note, Nov 2026/Mar 2027 (SOA) — the study-note code CP311-111-26 and its title