Actuarial Notes

SOA Exam SRM Sample Question 58

Study guide: Exam SRM

You are given the following six observed values of the autoregressive model of order one time series

y_t = \beta_0 + \beta_1 y_{t-1} + \varepsilon_t \text{ with } Var(\varepsilon_t) = \sigma^2.

t 1 2 3 4 5 6
y_t 31 35 37 41 45 51

The approximation to the conditional least squares method is used to estimate \beta_0 and \beta_1.

Calculate the mean squared error s^2 that estimates \sigma^2.

  • A) 13
  • B) 21
  • C) 22
  • D) 26
  • E) 35

Answer this question and see the worked solution

Concepts tested

More questions from this set