Actuarial Notes

SOA Exam P Sample Question 659

Study guide: Exam P-1

Rangers at a mountain resort set explosives to detonate at various locations to induce a controlled avalanche after a snowfall. A controlled avalanche will start after two effective detonations, and the probability that a detonation will be effective is 0.30. Assume the effectiveness of different detonations are independent.

Calculate the probability that the second effective detonation will occur from the tenth to twelfth detonations inclusive.

  • A) 0.0280
  • B) 0.0363
  • C) 0.0856
  • D) 0.1110
  • E) 0.1223

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