Actuarial Notes

SOA Exam P Sample Question 645

Study guide: Exam P-1

In any given year, a homeowner has probability 0.8 of experiencing no thefts. The number of thefts experienced by the homeowner in a year is independent of the number of thefts experienced by the homeowner in any other year.

The homeowner purchases a theft policy covering the next five years.

Calculate the probability that the first theft to occur under the policy occurs in the second policy year, given that thefts occur in exactly two of the policy years.

  • A) 0.160
  • B) 0.250
  • C) 0.300
  • D) 0.384
  • E) 0.400

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