Actuarial Notes

SOA Exam P Sample Question 625

Study guide: Exam P-1

The number of hurricanes in a year is modeled by a Poisson distribution with mean 1. The number of hurricanes in different years are mutually independent.

Calculate the probability that there are exactly ten hurricanes in a decade, given that there were exactly eight hurricanes in the first seven years of the decade.

  • A) 0.053
  • B) 0.125
  • C) 0.130
  • D) 0.191
  • E) 0.224

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