Actuarial Notes

SOA Exam P Sample Question 455

Study guide: Exam P-1

Under a health insurance policy, 70% of the policyholders are low-risk and the other 30% are high-risk. For each low-risk policyholder, the number of hospitalizations experienced this year is Poisson-distributed with mean 0.05. For each high-risk policyholder, the number of hospitalizations experienced this year is Poisson-distributed with mean 0.30.

Calculate the probability that a randomly selected policyholder is low-risk, given that the policyholder undergoes no hospitalizations this year.

  • A) 0.280
  • B) 0.666
  • C) 0.700
  • D) 0.750
  • E) 0.760

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