Actuarial Notes

SOA Exam P Sample Question 288

Study guide: Exam P-1

For a pregnant woman, a certain test will give the outcome "not pregnant" with probability 0.10. For a non-pregnant woman, the test will give the outcome "pregnant" with probability 0.20. Of women who take the test, 20% are pregnant.

Calculate the probability that a woman is pregnant, given her test outcome is "pregnant."

  • A) 0.10
  • B) 0.20
  • C) 0.50
  • D) 0.53
  • E) 0.90

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