Actuarial Notes

SOA Exam P Sample Question 211

Study guide: Exam P-1

A flood insurance company determines that N, the number of claims received in a month, is a random variable with P[N=n]=\frac{2}{3^{n+1}}, for n=0,1,2,\ldots. The numbers of claims received in different months are mutually independent.

Calculate the probability that more than three claims will be received during a consecutive two-month period, given that fewer than two claims were received in the first of the two months.

  • A) 0.0062
  • B) 0.0123
  • C) 0.0139
  • D) 0.0165
  • E) 0.0185

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