Actuarial Notes

SOA Exam P Sample Question 24

Study guide: Exam P-1

A blood test indicates the presence of a particular disease 95% of the time when the disease is actually present. The same test indicates the presence of the disease 0.5% of the time when the disease is not actually present. One percent of the population actually has the disease.

Calculate the probability that a person actually has the disease given that the test indicates the presence of the disease.

  • A) 0.324
  • B) 0.657
  • C) 0.945
  • D) 0.950
  • E) 0.995

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