CAS Exam MAS-II Spring 2019, Question 37
Study guide: Exam MAS-II
An actuary fits two models, X and Y, to the same dataset.
- Model X contains 10 parameters, resulting in a DIC of 1,020.18.
- The actuary drops two parameters from Model X – the resulting model, Model Y, contains 8 parameters, resulting in a DIC of 1,016.18.
- In both models, the actuary selects flat and non-informative prior distributions for the parameters.
Consider the following statements:
I. Model Y fits the data more closely than model X. II. Model Y is preferred over Model X to make out-of-sample predictions. III. Model Y is not overfit.
Determine which of the above statements must be true.
- A) I only
- B) II only
- C) III only
- D) I, II, and III
- E) The answer is not given by (A), (B), (C), or (D)
No current syllabus covers this question; it is kept for the record.
Answer this question and see the worked solution