Actuarial Notes

CAS Exam MAS-II Fall 2019, Question 22

Study guide: Exam MAS-II

Your coworker built a linear model predicting a random variable Y:

\begin{align*}
Y_i &\sim \text{Normal}(\mu_i, \sigma) \\
\mu_i &= \alpha + \beta_{x_1}\log(x_{1i}) + \beta_{x_{2i}}x_2 \\
\alpha &\sim \text{Normal}(100, 100) \\
\beta_{x_1} &\sim \text{Normal}(0, 5) \\
\beta_{x_{2i}} &\sim \text{Normal}(0, 5) \\
\sigma &\sim \text{Uniform}(0, 100)
\end{align*}

You are given additional detail about pre-processing performed on the predictor variables:

  • All variables are continuous numeric
  • x_{1i} is strictly positive
  • Variable x_{2i} has been standardized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1

Your coworker gives you the following three statements:

I. \alpha = average outcome II. \beta_{x_1} = change in outcome for each 1 log change of x_{1i} III. \beta_{x_2} = change in outcome for each 1 standard deviation change of x_{2i}

Determine which of the above statements are false.

  • A) I only
  • B) II only
  • C) III only
  • D) I, II and III
  • E) The answer is not given by (A), (B), (C), or (D)

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