Actuarial Notes

CAS Exam MAS-II Fall 2018, Question 17

Study guide: Exam MAS-II

A chain of parameters is sampled using the Gibbs algorithm. The length of the chain is 2,500. 25% of the samples are regarded as warm-up. The autocorrelation, \rho, is computed at each lag, k.

k \rho_k
0 1.00
1 0.82
2 0.73
3 0.54
4 0.56
5 0.42
6 0.31
7 0.28
8 0.17
9 0.18
10 0.04
11 -0.01
12 0.02
13 -0.03
14 0.01
15 -0.03
16 0.02
17 0.00
18 0.05
19 -0.01
20 -0.02

Calculate the effective sample size of the chain.

  • A) Less than or equal to 200
  • B) Greater than 200 but less than or equal to 225
  • C) Greater than 225 but less than or equal to 250
  • D) Greater than 250 but less than or equal to 275
  • E) Greater than 275

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