Actuarial Notes

Exam DISC-DA Practice Question 212

Study guide: Exam DISC-DA

A homeowners wind model is built on five accident years of policy data, including a year with one large hurricane that produced thousands of claims. The analyst splits the records 70/30 at random into training and test sets, and the test-set lift is excellent. The chief actuary doubts the result. Which concern is most valid, and what should be done?

  • A) The test set is too small; switch to a 90/10 random split to get more test claims
  • B) Hurricane claims fall in both sets; test on a later period not used for training
  • C) Random splits always overstate lift; abandon the test set and judge training fit
  • D) The model has too few variables; add predictors until the training error stops falling

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