CAS Exam 8 Fall 2018, Question 17
Study guide: Exam 9
A catastrophe modeler would like to incorporate a new construction technique into a catastrophe model. This new technique would theoretically reduce the amount of building damage sustained during hurricane force winds. However, experts have not reached a consensus on the effectiveness of the new construction technique because it has not been exposed to an actual hurricane.
Part a (0.5 points)
Briefly describe which module(s) of the catastrophe model would need to be modified to account for the new information.
Part b (0.5 points)
Classify the uncertainty created with the new construction technique as either aleatory or epistemic and briefly justify the selection.
Part c (1 point)
Briefly describe and contrast two methods the modeler could use to incorporate uncertainty in this catastrophe model.
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