Actuarial Notes

CAS Exam 8 Fall 2014, Question 2

Study guide: Exam 8

In their 2007 review of hazard group mappings, the National Council of Compensation Insurance (NCCI) chose to continue to use the following formula to calculate the credibility by class:

z = \min\left(\frac{n}{n+k} \times 1.5,\ 1\right)

where

  • n = number of claims in the class
  • k = average number of claims per class

The following table shows the distribution of classes by credibility range using the credibility formula above:

Credibility Range Claims per Year Number of Classes Percent of Premium
0\% \le z < 10\% 0 - 237 355 1.2%
10\% \le z < 20\% 238 - 511 89 1.3%
20\% \le z < 30\% 512 - 831 61 1.6%
30\% \le z < 40\% 832 - 1209 56 2.7%
40\% \le z < 50\% 1210 - 1662 46 2.5%
50\% \le z < 60\% 1663 - 2216 34 2.5%
60\% \le z < 70\% 2217 - 2909 46 4.8%
70\% \le z < 80\% 2910 - 3799 35 4.3%
80\% \le z < 90\% 3800 - 4987 29 4.0%
90\% \le z < 100\% 4988 - 6649 18 3.2%
z = 100\% \ge 6650 101 71.8%
Total 870 100.0%

Part a (0.5 points)

Based on the table above, discuss one consideration when deciding whether to use this credibility formula.

Part b (0.5 points)

Briefly describe two alternative methods that could be used to calculate credibility by class.

No current syllabus covers this question; it is kept for the record.

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