Actuarial Notes

CAS Exam 8 Fall 2014, Question 15

Study guide: Exam 8

The balanced plan provisions for a 2014 workers compensation risk are:

Provision Value
Standard Premium $6,000,000
Expected Loss (Ratio to Standard Premium) 0.5
Minimum Entry Ratio, r_H 0.15
Maximum Entry Ration (as printed), r_G 2.52
Basic Premium (Ratio to Standard Premium) 0.2766
Loss Conversion Factor 1.25
Tax Multiplier 1.08
State Hazard Group Differential 0.95

Assume that in the following year the endpoints of the expected loss size ranges in the NCCI Retrospective Rating Manual are increased by 10% to reflect assumed inflation.

Calculate the expected shortfall, as a percentage of 2015 expected retrospective premium, from failing to update the expected loss size ranges.

Part a (2.75 points)

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Concepts tested

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