Actuarial Notes

CAS Exam 7 Spring 2019, Question 4

Study guide: Exam 7

An insurer writes high deductible workers compensation policies with a per-occurrence deductible of $2,000,000.

Given the following information as of December 31, 2018:

Cumulative Reported Losses ($000) Limited to $1,000,000:

Accident Year 12 Months 24 Months 36 Months 48 Months
2015 450 1,250 2,500 3,300
2016 350 1,500 2,900
2017 375 1,400
2018 325

Limited Expected Values ($000) at $500,000 Basic Limit:

Accident Year 12 Months 24 Months 36 Months 48 Months
2015 99 266 356 385
2016 114 285 370 397
2017 109 282 367 394
2018 118 294 376 402

Limited Expected Values ($000) at $1,000,000 Limit:

Accident Year 12 Months 24 Months 36 Months 48 Months
2015 100 330 528 607
2016 115 367 565 641
2017 110 360 558 635
2018 120 385 583 657

Limited Expected Values ($000) at $2,000,000 Limit:

Accident Year 12 Months 24 Months 36 Months 48 Months
2015 100 349 652 809
2016 115 397 724 885
2017 110 388 709 871
2018 120 421 759 921

Unlimited Expected Values ($000):

Accident Year 12 Months 24 Months 36 Months 48 Months
2015 100 350 690 910
2016 115 400 785 1,035
2017 110 390 765 1,010
2018 120 425 835 1,100
  • Assume there is no development after 48 months.
  • Accident year 2017 reported losses excess of the $2,000,000 deductible at 24 months are $50,000.
  • Accident year 2017 reported losses limited to the $2,000,000 deductible at 24 months are $2,400,000.

Part a (1.75 points)

Calculate the expected ultimate loss to the insurer for accident year 2017 as of December 31, 2018 using the procedure outlined by Sahasrabuddhe.

Part b (1 point)

An exponential claim size model was used to produce the limited expected values in the tables above. Explain how the estimate of the ultimate loss to the insurer would change if a smaller model parameter was used.

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Concepts tested

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