CAS Exam 7 Spring 2019, Question 4
Study guide: Exam 7
An insurer writes high deductible workers compensation policies with a per-occurrence deductible of $2,000,000.
Given the following information as of December 31, 2018:
Cumulative Reported Losses ($000) Limited to $1,000,000:
| Accident Year | 12 Months | 24 Months | 36 Months | 48 Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 450 | 1,250 | 2,500 | 3,300 |
| 2016 | 350 | 1,500 | 2,900 | |
| 2017 | 375 | 1,400 | ||
| 2018 | 325 |
Limited Expected Values ($000) at $500,000 Basic Limit:
| Accident Year | 12 Months | 24 Months | 36 Months | 48 Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 99 | 266 | 356 | 385 |
| 2016 | 114 | 285 | 370 | 397 |
| 2017 | 109 | 282 | 367 | 394 |
| 2018 | 118 | 294 | 376 | 402 |
Limited Expected Values ($000) at $1,000,000 Limit:
| Accident Year | 12 Months | 24 Months | 36 Months | 48 Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 100 | 330 | 528 | 607 |
| 2016 | 115 | 367 | 565 | 641 |
| 2017 | 110 | 360 | 558 | 635 |
| 2018 | 120 | 385 | 583 | 657 |
Limited Expected Values ($000) at $2,000,000 Limit:
| Accident Year | 12 Months | 24 Months | 36 Months | 48 Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 100 | 349 | 652 | 809 |
| 2016 | 115 | 397 | 724 | 885 |
| 2017 | 110 | 388 | 709 | 871 |
| 2018 | 120 | 421 | 759 | 921 |
Unlimited Expected Values ($000):
| Accident Year | 12 Months | 24 Months | 36 Months | 48 Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 100 | 350 | 690 | 910 |
| 2016 | 115 | 400 | 785 | 1,035 |
| 2017 | 110 | 390 | 765 | 1,010 |
| 2018 | 120 | 425 | 835 | 1,100 |
- Assume there is no development after 48 months.
- Accident year 2017 reported losses excess of the $2,000,000 deductible at 24 months are $50,000.
- Accident year 2017 reported losses limited to the $2,000,000 deductible at 24 months are $2,400,000.
Part a (1.75 points)
Calculate the expected ultimate loss to the insurer for accident year 2017 as of December 31, 2018 using the procedure outlined by Sahasrabuddhe.
Part b (1 point)
An exponential claim size model was used to produce the limited expected values in the tables above. Explain how the estimate of the ultimate loss to the insurer would change if a smaller model parameter was used.
Answer this question and see the worked solution