Actuarial Notes

CAS Exam 5 Fall 2016, Question 22

Study guide: Exam 5

An actuary working at an insurance company is using a frequency-severity technique to estimate ultimate claims. The company made an effort to close claims more quickly starting in 2014. Given the following information:

Closed Claim Counts as of (months):

Accident Year 12 24 36 48
2012 435 600 670 705
2013 520 700 740
2014 600 650
2015 620

Paid Claims ($000s) as of (months):

Accident Year 12 24 36 48
2012 393 650 765 776
2013 511 697 744
2014 637 825
2015 722

Reported Claim Counts as of (months):

Accident Year 12 24 36 48
2012 600 670 720 730
2013 640 715 750
2014 620 690
2015 650

Reported Claims ($000s) as of (months):

Accident Year 12 24 36 48
2012 560 720 780 790
2013 580 720 760
2014 670 850
2015 760
  • 48-Ultimate reported claim count factor = 1.03.
  • 48-Ultimate closed claim count factor = 1.06.
  • 48-Ultimate paid severity factor = 1.15.
  • 48-Ultimate reported severity factor = 1.02.

Part a (0.5 points)

Determine whether evidence exists to support that claims are closing more quickly starting in 2014.

Part b (2.5 points)

Calculate an appropriate frequency-severity estimate of ultimate claims for accident years 2014 and 2015.

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Concepts tested

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