CAS Exam 5 Fall 2016, Question 22
Study guide: Exam 5
An actuary working at an insurance company is using a frequency-severity technique to estimate ultimate claims. The company made an effort to close claims more quickly starting in 2014. Given the following information:
Closed Claim Counts as of (months):
| Accident Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 435 | 600 | 670 | 705 |
| 2013 | 520 | 700 | 740 | |
| 2014 | 600 | 650 | ||
| 2015 | 620 |
Paid Claims ($000s) as of (months):
| Accident Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 393 | 650 | 765 | 776 |
| 2013 | 511 | 697 | 744 | |
| 2014 | 637 | 825 | ||
| 2015 | 722 |
Reported Claim Counts as of (months):
| Accident Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 600 | 670 | 720 | 730 |
| 2013 | 640 | 715 | 750 | |
| 2014 | 620 | 690 | ||
| 2015 | 650 |
Reported Claims ($000s) as of (months):
| Accident Year | 12 | 24 | 36 | 48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 560 | 720 | 780 | 790 |
| 2013 | 580 | 720 | 760 | |
| 2014 | 670 | 850 | ||
| 2015 | 760 |
- 48-Ultimate reported claim count factor = 1.03.
- 48-Ultimate closed claim count factor = 1.06.
- 48-Ultimate paid severity factor = 1.15.
- 48-Ultimate reported severity factor = 1.02.
Part a (0.5 points)
Determine whether evidence exists to support that claims are closing more quickly starting in 2014.
Part b (2.5 points)
Calculate an appropriate frequency-severity estimate of ultimate claims for accident years 2014 and 2015.
Answer this question and see the worked solution