Actuarial Notes

CAS Exam 5 Fall 2014, Question 23

Study guide: Exam 5

The following information is available for an insurance company that began writing business in 2010:

Cumulative Paid Claims as of (months)

Accident Year 12 24 36 48
2010 $198 $285 $325 $347
2011 $1,220 $1,763 $2,044
2012 $13,000 $18,750
2013 $11,060
Calendar Year Paid ULAE
2010 $23
2011 $59
2012 $814
2013 $688
  • The actuary has selected a 24-month cumulative paid claim development factor of 1.25.
  • The initial expected claims for accident year 2013 are $31,500.
  • Case outstanding for accident year 2013 as of December 31, 2013 is $5,720.

Part a (1.25 points)

Estimate IBNR for accident year 2013 as of December 31, 2013 using the paid Bornhuetter-Ferguson technique.

Part b (1.25 points)

Estimate unpaid ULAE for accident year 2013 as of December 31, 2013, using the classical technique and the results from part a. above.

Part c (0.75 points)

State the key assumptions of the classical technique, and briefly comment on the appropriateness of utilizing the classical technique in estimating unpaid ULAE for this company.

Part d (0.5 points)

Describe a refinement to the classical technique that can be used to derive a reasonable estimate of unpaid ULAE for this company.

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Concepts tested

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