CAS Exam 5 Spring 2013, Question 16
Study guide: Exam 5
Given the following information:
Cumulative Closed Claim Counts
| Accident Half-Year | 6 Months | 12 Months | 18 Months | 24 Months | 30 Months | 36 Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010-1 | 4,898 | 7,349 | 7,571 | 7,647 | 7,647 | 7,647 |
| 2010-2 | 5,576 | 6,786 | 7,487 | 7,569 | 7,569 | |
| 2011-1 | 6,580 | 10,215 | 10,618 | 10,724 | ||
| 2011-2 | 7,514 | 9,564 | 10,953 | |||
| 2012-1 | 8,894 | 13,807 | ||||
| 2012-2 | 10,265 |
Age-to-Age Factors
| Accident Half-Year | 6-12 | 12-18 | 18-24 | 24-30 | 30-36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010-1 | 1.500 | 1.030 | 1.010 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 2010-2 | 1.217 | 1.103 | 1.011 | 1.000 | |
| 2011-1 | 1.552 | 1.039 | 1.010 | ||
| 2011-2 | 1.273 | 1.145 | |||
| 2012-1 | 1.552 |
Assume no closed claim count development after 36 months.
Part a (1.25 points)
Estimate the ultimate claim count for accident year 2012.
Part b (0.5 points)
Briefly discuss two advantages for analyzing this data using accident half-years as opposed to full accident years.
Answer this question and see the worked solution