Actuarial Notes

Variance and Standard Deviation

Variance \sigma^2 and Standard Deviation \sigma both measure how far a Random Variable spreads around its mean. Variance is the expected squared deviation; standard deviation is its square root, restored to the original units of X.

\sigma^2 = \text{Var}(X) = E\left[(X - \mu)^2\right]

= E[X^2] - \mu^2

\sigma = \text{SD}(X) = \sqrt{\text{Var}(X)}

  • \mu = E[X]. The second form E[X^2] - \mu^2 is the one to use in practice — it needs only two moments and avoids expanding a square.
  • \text{Var}(aX + b) = a^2\,\text{Var}(X) and \text{SD}(aX + b) = |a|\,\text{SD}(X) — a shift b moves the distribution without changing its spread.
  • For a sum, \text{Var}(X + Y) = \text{Var}(X) + \text{Var}(Y) + 2\,\text{Cov}(X,Y); the Covariance term drops out whenever X and Y are uncorrelated, \text{Cov}(X,Y) = 0 — for example when they are independent. Zero covariance does not imply independence. See Moments for Linear Combinations.
  • Standard deviations do not add: \text{SD}(X+Y) \neq \text{SD}(X) + \text{SD}(Y). Always add variances, then take the square root at the very end.
  • Dividing \sigma by \mu gives the unitless Coefficient of Variation.

Variance of a Discrete Claim Count The number of claims N on a policy has P(N=0) = 0.6, P(N=1) = 0.3, P(N=2) = 0.1. Find \text{Var}(N) and \text{SD}(N).

Answer First both moments:

\begin{align*}
E[N] &= 0(0.6) + 1(0.3) + 2(0.1) \\
     &= 0.5 \\
E[N^2] &= 0^2(0.6) + 1^2(0.3) + 2^2(0.1) \\
       &= 0.7
\end{align*}

Then the variance and standard deviation:

\begin{align*}
\text{Var}(N) &= E[N^2] - (E[N])^2 \\
              &= 0.7 - 0.25 \\
              &= 0.45 \\
\text{SD}(N)  &= \sqrt{0.45} \\
              &\approx 0.67
\end{align*}

Variance from a Continuous Density Losses have density f(x) = 3x^2 on 0 < x < 1. Find \text{SD}(X).

Answer

\begin{align*}
E[X] &= \int_0^1 x \cdot 3x^2\,dx \\
     &= \left[\tfrac{3}{4}x^4\right]_0^1 \\
     &= 0.75 \\
E[X^2] &= \int_0^1 x^2 \cdot 3x^2\,dx \\
       &= \left[\tfrac{3}{5}x^5\right]_0^1 \\
       &= 0.60
\end{align*}
\begin{align*}
\text{Var}(X) &= 0.60 - 0.75^2 \\
              &= 0.0375 \\
\text{SD}(X)  &\approx 0.194
\end{align*}

Why Standard Deviations Cannot Be Added Two independent policies each have loss standard deviation $300. Find the standard deviation of their combined loss.

Answer Add the variances, not the standard deviations:

\begin{align*}
\text{Var}(X_1 + X_2) &= 300^2 + 300^2 \\
                      &= 180{,}000 \\
\text{SD}(X_1 + X_2)  &= \sqrt{180{,}000} \\
                      &\approx 424.26
\end{align*}

The answer is $424.26, not $600. Pooling independent risks grows total standard deviation by \sqrt{n}, not n — the mathematical basis for diversification.