Variance and Standard Deviation
Variance \sigma^2 and Standard Deviation \sigma both measure how far a Random Variable spreads around its mean. Variance is the expected squared deviation; standard deviation is its square root, restored to the original units of X.
\sigma^2 = \text{Var}(X) = E\left[(X - \mu)^2\right]
= E[X^2] - \mu^2
\sigma = \text{SD}(X) = \sqrt{\text{Var}(X)}
\mu = E[X]. The second formE[X^2] - \mu^2is the one to use in practice — it needs only two moments and avoids expanding a square.\text{Var}(aX + b) = a^2\,\text{Var}(X)and\text{SD}(aX + b) = |a|\,\text{SD}(X)— a shiftbmoves the distribution without changing its spread.- For a sum,
\text{Var}(X + Y) = \text{Var}(X) + \text{Var}(Y) + 2\,\text{Cov}(X,Y); the Covariance term drops out wheneverXandYare uncorrelated,\text{Cov}(X,Y) = 0— for example when they are independent. Zero covariance does not imply independence. See Moments for Linear Combinations. - Standard deviations do not add:
\text{SD}(X+Y) \neq \text{SD}(X) + \text{SD}(Y). Always add variances, then take the square root at the very end. - Dividing
\sigmaby\mugives the unitless Coefficient of Variation.
Variance of a Discrete Claim Count The number of claims
Non a policy hasP(N=0) = 0.6,P(N=1) = 0.3,P(N=2) = 0.1. Find\text{Var}(N)and\text{SD}(N).Answer First both moments:
\begin{align*} E[N] &= 0(0.6) + 1(0.3) + 2(0.1) \\ &= 0.5 \\ E[N^2] &= 0^2(0.6) + 1^2(0.3) + 2^2(0.1) \\ &= 0.7 \end{align*}Then the variance and standard deviation:
\begin{align*} \text{Var}(N) &= E[N^2] - (E[N])^2 \\ &= 0.7 - 0.25 \\ &= 0.45 \\ \text{SD}(N) &= \sqrt{0.45} \\ &\approx 0.67 \end{align*}
Variance from a Continuous Density Losses have density
f(x) = 3x^2on0 < x < 1. Find\text{SD}(X).Answer
\begin{align*} E[X] &= \int_0^1 x \cdot 3x^2\,dx \\ &= \left[\tfrac{3}{4}x^4\right]_0^1 \\ &= 0.75 \\ E[X^2] &= \int_0^1 x^2 \cdot 3x^2\,dx \\ &= \left[\tfrac{3}{5}x^5\right]_0^1 \\ &= 0.60 \end{align*}\begin{align*} \text{Var}(X) &= 0.60 - 0.75^2 \\ &= 0.0375 \\ \text{SD}(X) &\approx 0.194 \end{align*}
Why Standard Deviations Cannot Be Added Two independent policies each have loss standard deviation $300. Find the standard deviation of their combined loss.
Answer Add the variances, not the standard deviations:
\begin{align*} \text{Var}(X_1 + X_2) &= 300^2 + 300^2 \\ &= 180{,}000 \\ \text{SD}(X_1 + X_2) &= \sqrt{180{,}000} \\ &\approx 424.26 \end{align*}The answer is $424.26, not $600. Pooling independent risks grows total standard deviation by
\sqrt{n}, notn— the mathematical basis for diversification.