Actuarial Notes

Tree Pruning

Study guide: Exam MAS-II

Tree pruning grows a Decision Tree deliberately too large, then cuts it back to the subtree that minimizes a penalized error. Cost-complexity pruning indexes the candidate subtrees by a single parameter \alpha, turning "which of the many subtrees?" into a one-dimensional tuning problem.

\sum_{m=1}^{\lvert T\rvert} \sum_{x_i \in R_m}\left(y_i - \hat{y}_{R_m}\right)^{2} + \alpha\,\lvert T \rvert

\lvert T \rvert = \text{number of terminal nodes}

  • Grow first, prune second. Stopping early on a "no split improves RSS enough" rule is short-sighted — a weak split can unlock a strong one below it
  • \alpha = 0 keeps the full tree; raising \alpha makes leaves progressively too expensive, collapsing the tree from the bottom up to a single node
  • The sequence of subtrees as \alpha increases is nested and finite, so Cross-Validation over \alpha picks the size and the tree is refit on the full data at that \alpha
  • For classification the loss is the misclassification rate, Gini Index or Entropy; Gini and entropy are preferred for growing because they are sensitive to node purity, misclassification rate for pruning
  • Pruning is the single-tree answer to variance; Bagging and Random Forest attack the same problem by averaging instead, and their trees are typically left unpruned

Pruning by Cost Complexity A regression tree has candidate subtrees with (leaves, RSS): (1, 520), (3, 340), (5, 285), (8, 262). At \alpha = 25, which subtree is chosen?

Answer Score each as \mathrm{RSS} + \alpha\lvert T\rvert: 1: 520 + 25 = 545 \qquad 3: 340 + 75 = 415 5: 285 + 125 = 410 \qquad 8: 262 + 200 = 462 The 5-leaf subtree wins at 410. Raising \alpha to 40 would flip the answer to the 3-leaf tree (340+120=460 vs 285+200=485).