Actuarial Notes

Spot Rates and Forward Rates

Spot rates and forward rates are two descriptions of the same term structure of interest rates. The Spot Rate s_t is the annual effective rate earned on an investment made now and repaid in one sum at time t; the Forward Rate f_{n,n+k} is the annual effective rate for an investment that starts n years from now and lasts k years. Either set determines the other, because investing for n years and then at the forward rate for k more must accumulate to the same amount as investing at the (n+k)-year spot rate:

(1+s_n)^n\,(1+f_{n,n+k})^k = (1+s_{n+k})^{n+k}

Chaining one-year forward rates builds the spot rates, and the spot rates discount any set of cash flows C_t:

(1+s_t)^t = (1+f_{0,1})(1+f_{1,2})\cdots(1+f_{t-1,t})

PV = \sum_{t} \frac{C_t}{(1+s_t)^t}

  • f_{n,n+k} is what SOA calls the "k-year forward rate, deferred n years" (or "starting in n years"); the one-year forward rate starting now is the one-year spot rate, f_{0,1} = s_1
  • Plotted against term, the spot rates form the Yield Curve. Exam FM asks for the present value of a set of cash flows using a yield curve developed from forward and spot rates: convert whichever rates are given to spot rates (or to a product of forward-rate factors), then discount each cash flow at the rate for its own time
  • For the one-step formulas — pricing a bond from spot rates, or a one-year forward rate from two adjacent spot rates — see Spot Rate and Forward Rate

From Forward Rates to Spot Rates and a Present Value The one-year forward rates are f_{0,1} = 3\%, f_{1,2} = 4\% and f_{2,3} = 5.5\%. An insurer must pay 1{,}000 at the end of each of the next three years. Find the 2- and 3-year spot rates and the present value of the payments.

Answer Chain the forward-rate factors:

\begin{align*}
(1+s_2)^2 &= (1.03)(1.04) \\
&= 1.0712 \\
s_2 &= 1.0712^{1/2} - 1 \\
&= 3.50\% \\
(1+s_3)^3 &= (1.03)(1.04)(1.055) \\
&= 1.130116 \\
s_3 &= 1.130116^{1/3} - 1 \\
&= 4.16\%
\end{align*}

Discount each payment by its own factor:

\begin{align*}
PV &= \frac{1{,}000}{1.03} + \frac{1{,}000}{1.0712} + \frac{1{,}000}{1.130116} \\
&= 970.874 + 933.532 + 884.865 \\
&= 2{,}789.27
\end{align*}

A Two-Year Forward Rate, Deferred Two Years The 2-year spot rate is 4.5\% and the 4-year spot rate is 5.5\%. A company will borrow at the end of year 2 for two years. Find the 2-year forward rate, deferred 2 years, implied by these spot rates.

Answer With n = 2 and k = 2:

\begin{align*}
(1.045)^2\,(1+f_{2,4})^2 &= (1.055)^4 \\
(1+f_{2,4})^2 &= \frac{1.238825}{1.092025} \\
&= 1.134429 \\
f_{2,4} &= 1.134429^{1/2} - 1 \\
&= 6.51\%
\end{align*}

The forward rate is above both spot rates. The 4-year spot rate is a geometric average of the rate for years 1–2 and the rate for years 3–4, so for s_4 to exceed s_2 the later two years must earn more than s_4.