Actuarial Notes

Retiree

Study guides: Exam CP-321, Exam RET-101

A retiree is a former employee who has left active service and is receiving, or is entitled to, benefits from a plan sponsor's retirement plan or post-retirement welfare plan — a pension, retiree health coverage, retiree life insurance. In a valuation a retiree's benefit is fully accrued: no more service is earned, so the obligation is simply the expected present value of the benefits still to be paid.

\text{Obligation}_x = \sum_{t \geq 0} v^{t}\, {}_{t}p_{x}\, B_{x+t}

B_{x+t} = s\; c_{x+t}\,(1+h)^{t}

  • x is the retiree's age, {}_tp_x the probability of surviving t years (mortality), v the discount factor at the discount rate, and B_{x+t} the benefit expected at age x+t. For a pension, B is the annuity payment (with any indexation); for retiree health, c_{x+t} is the per capita claims cost at that age, h the health care cost trend, and s the share the plan pays after retiree contributions and any government program.
  • Because a retiree earns no further service, the retiree's whole obligation is accrued liability: under IAS 19 the defined benefit obligation equals the full expected present value, and there is no current service cost — the same split as accrued liability and normal cost for an active member.
  • Risks a retiree faces (RET-101): outliving savings (longevity), inflation eroding fixed income, investment and interest rate risk on savings and annuity purchase, rising health and long-term care costs, the death of a spouse, cognitive decline, and the sponsor reducing or ending a benefit.
  • Plan design moves those risks: a life annuity form pools longevity, indexation absorbs inflation, joint-and-survivor forms protect the spouse, and retiree health design (caps on the employer subsidy, defined-dollar accounts, a pre-65 bridge) decides how much health cost risk stays with the sponsor and how much passes to the retiree.

Retiree Health Obligation for a Pre-65 Bridge A retiree aged 62 is covered by an employer plan until 65, when a government plan takes over. The per capita claims cost at 62 is \$9{,}000, rising 4\% a year with age; health care trend is 6\%; the retiree pays 30\% of cost. Survival: {}_1p_{62} = 0.99, {}_1p_{63} = 0.985. Discount at 4\%; costs are paid at the start of each year. Compute the employer's obligation.

Answer Employer cost each year is 0.70 \times 9{,}000 \times (1.04)^t (1.06)^t:

\begin{align*}
B_{62} &= 0.70 \times 9{,}000 \\
&= 6{,}300.00 \\
B_{63} &= 0.70 \times 9{,}921.60 \\
&= 6{,}945.12 \\
B_{64} &= 0.70 \times 10{,}937.57 \\
&= 7{,}656.30
\end{align*}
\begin{align*}
\text{Obligation} &= 6{,}300 + 0.99\,v\,(6{,}945.12) \\
&\quad + 0.97515\,v^{2}(7{,}656.30) \\
&= 6{,}300.00 + 6{,}611.22 + 6{,}902.77 \\
&= 19{,}813.99
\end{align*}

The employer's obligation is about \$19{,}814. Aging and trend together grow the cost 10.2\% a year, more than the discount rate pulls it back — which is why trend is the assumption retiree health valuations argue about most.

Longevity Risk in a Drawdown vs. an Annuity A 65-year-old retiree has \$500{,}000 and plans to withdraw \$35{,}000 at the start of each year while the balance earns 4\%. An insurer quotes an annuity-due factor of 14.2 at 65. How long does the drawdown last, and what life income would the annuity buy?

Answer The drawdown runs out when 35{,}000\,\ddot{a}_{\overline{n}|} = 500{,}000:

\begin{align*}
\ddot{a}_{\overline{n}|} &= 500{,}000 / 35{,}000 \\
&= 14.2857 \\
1 - v^{n} &= 14.2857 \times 0.03846 \\
&= 0.5495 \\
n &= -\ln(0.4505) / \ln(1.04) \\
&= 20.3
\end{align*}
\begin{align*}
\text{Annuity income} &= 500{,}000 / 14.2 \\
&= 35{,}211
\end{align*}

The drawdown is exhausted a little after age 85; the annuity pays slightly more, for life. The retiree who self-insures bears the whole tail of the survival curve, while the annuity pools it — the core RET-101 argument for annuity forms in plan design, against which the retiree gives up liquidity and any bequest.

How it appears on the exam

  • RET-101 (Participant Risks): written answers that identify the risks a retiree faces and say which plan design features (annuity form, indexation, survivor benefits, retiree medical) manage each, or where a sponsor's goals contradict them.
  • CP-321 (Retiree Group Benefits): a retiree health valuation — per capita costs by age, trend, contributions, survival and discount — to give the obligation, often with a change in design (a cap, a bridge ending at 65) to evaluate.
  • CP-321 also asks, in writing, for design proposals that manage retirees' risks and for advice to a sponsor choosing retiree health design elements.

Exam traps

  • Charging service cost on a retiree: a retiree accrues no further service, so the whole value is accrued obligation; a positive retiree "service cost" is the giveaway.
  • Applying trend without aging (or the reverse): c_{x+t}(1+h)^t needs both; dropping aging understates a retiree health obligation materially.
  • Forgetting retiree contributions or the government plan offset: the plan's share s applies to gross cost, not the other way round.
  • Treating a lump sum as protection against longevity: a drawdown that lasts to life expectancy leaves roughly half of retirees outliving it.