Actuarial Notes

Region of Integration

The Region of Integration R is the set of points (x, y) over which a double integral of a joint density is taken: the event A whose probability is wanted, cut down to the support where f(x,y) > 0. Turning R into limits — constant outer limits, inner limits that may depend on the outer variable — is most of the work in a continuous multivariate Exam P problem.

P\big((X,Y) \in A\big) = \iint_{R} f(x,y)\,dA

R = A \cap \{(x,y) : f(x,y) > 0\}

\iint_R f\,dA = \int_{a}^{b}\!\!\int_{g_1(x)}^{g_2(x)} f(x,y)\,dy\,dx

  • Sketch first. Shade the support, draw the event's boundary (such as the line x + y = s or y = 2x) and mark where they cross. Integrating over A while ignoring the support — or the reverse — is the most common error.
  • Vertical slices (outer x): a and b are the smallest and largest x in R; g_1(x) and g_2(x) are the lower and upper edges a vertical line crosses. Horizontal slices swap the roles. Choose the order in which one formula describes every slice; if an edge changes formula part-way, split R there and add the pieces.
  • Complement. When R is awkward, P(A) = 1 - P(A^c) and the complement is often a single slice.
  • Constant density (independent uniforms): no integral needed. P(A) = \text{area}(R)/\text{area}(\text{support}).
  • Standard shapes: X < Y lies above the diagonal; X + Y \le s below the anti-diagonal — the CDF method for a sum, see Transformations of Random Variables; for non-negative variables \max(X,Y) \le t is the square [0,t]^2 and \min(X,Y) > t the quadrant beyond (t, t). The joint CDF F(x,y) integrates over the quadrant below and left of (x,y).
  • The same region-setting drives normalising constants, marginals and expectations of a continuous pair. The discrete analogue is choosing which cells of the joint table to add.

Two Report Times and a Split Region Two claims are reported at independent exponential times with mean 1 year. With X the earlier and Y the later report time, f(x,y) = 2e^{-x-y} for 0 < x < y. Find P(X + Y < 2).

Answer The support is above the diagonal y = x; the event is below y = 2 - x. They cross at (1, 1), so R is the triangle with corners (0,0), (1,1) and (0,2).

With x outermost, every vertical slice runs from y = x up to y = 2 - x — one integral. With y outermost the right-hand edge changes at y = 1 (it is x = y below, x = 2 - y above), so that order needs two integrals. Take x outside:

\begin{align*}
P &= \int_0^1\!\!\int_x^{2-x} 2e^{-x}e^{-y}\,dy\,dx \\
  &= \int_0^1 2e^{-x}\left(e^{-x} - e^{-(2-x)}\right)dx \\
  &= \int_0^1 \left(2e^{-2x} - 2e^{-2}\right)dx \\
  &= \left(1 - e^{-2}\right) - 2e^{-2} \\
  &= 1 - 3e^{-2} \\
  &= 0.594
\end{align*}

Check: X + Y is just the sum of the two report times, a Gamma(2, 1), and P(\text{Gamma}(2,1) < 2) = 1 - e^{-2}(1 + 2). The region was right.

Aggregate Cover on Two Uniform Losses Losses X and Y on two policies are independent and uniform on (0, 10), in $000s. An aggregate cover responds when X + Y > 12. Find the probability it responds.

Answer The density is the constant \tfrac{1}{100} on the square, so the answer is an area ratio. The region above x + y = 12 inside the square is a right triangle with corners (2,10), (10,10) and (10,2) — legs of 8, area 32. As an integral:

\begin{align*}
P(X + Y > 12) &= \int_2^{10}\!\!\int_{12-x}^{10} \frac{1}{100}\,dy\,dx \\
              &= \int_2^{10} \frac{x - 2}{100}\,dx \\
              &= \frac{32}{100} \\
              &= 0.32
\end{align*}

The outer limit starts at x = 2, not 0: below it even y = 10 cannot reach 12. That clipping by the support is exactly what the sketch is for.