Actuarial Notes

Proportion of Variance Explained

Study guide: Exam MAS-II

The proportion of variance explained (PVE) is the share of the total variance in the data captured by a principal component. It is how Principal Components Analysis answers "how much did I lose by keeping only M components?"

\mathrm{PVE}_m = \frac{\lambda_m}{\sum_{j=1}^{p}\lambda_j}

\text{cumulative: } \sum_{m=1}^{M}\mathrm{PVE}_m

  • \lambda_m is the variance of the m-th score vector — the eigenvalue attached to the m-th Loading Vector
  • On standardized data \sum_j \lambda_j = p, so \mathrm{PVE}_m = \lambda_m/p and a component with \lambda_m > 1 carries more than one variable's worth of variance (the Kaiser rule of thumb)
  • PVE is decreasing in m by construction, and the cumulative curve rises to 1 at m = p
  • "Explained" means variance, not predictive power: a high-PVE component need not relate to the response at all, which is why PCA is Unsupervised Learning
  • The usual reading is off the Scree Plot or a cumulative-PVE target such as 90%

How Many Components? PCA on 8 standardized rating variables gives eigenvalues 3.6, 1.9, 1.0, 0.6, 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0.0. How much does PC1 explain, and how many components reach 80%?

Answer Total = 8 (standardized, so the eigenvalues sum to p). \mathrm{PVE}_1 = 3.6/8 = 45\% \qquad \mathrm{PVE}_2 = 1.9/8 = 23.75\% \qquad \mathrm{PVE}_3 = 12.5\% Cumulative: 45%, 68.75%, 81.25% — three components clear 80%, cutting eight variables to three at a 19% loss of variance.