Actuarial Notes

Covariance and Correlation Coefficient

The covariance \text{Cov}(X, Y) measures the direction of the linear relationship between two random variables — positive if they tend to move together, negative if oppositely. The correlation coefficient \rho_{X,Y} standardizes it into the range [-1, 1].

\text{Cov}(X, Y) = E[XY] - E[X]\,E[Y]

\rho_{X,Y} = \frac{\text{Cov}(X, Y)}{\sigma_X \, \sigma_Y}

  • Correlation is unit-free and comparable across scales, whereas covariance carries the product of the two variables' units.
  • \rho_{X,Y} = 0 means no linear relationship, but not necessarily independence.
  • Covariance is bilinear: \text{Cov}(aX + bY,\, Z) = a\,\text{Cov}(X, Z) + b\,\text{Cov}(Y, Z), adding a constant to either variable leaves it unchanged, and \text{Cov}(X, X) = \text{Var}(X).
  • See also Correlation and Covariance.

Covariance of Study Hours and Exam Score A joint PMF is p(1,4)=0.2, p(1,8)=0.1, p(3,4)=0.1, p(3,8)=0.6, where X = hours studied and Y = exam score. Compute \text{Cov}(X, Y).

Answer First the marginal means:

\begin{align*} E[X] &= 1(0.3) + 3(0.7) = 2.4 \\ E[Y] &= 4(0.3) + 8(0.7) = 6.8 \end{align*}

Then E[XY]: E[XY] = 1{\cdot}4(0.2) + 1{\cdot}8(0.1) + 3{\cdot}4(0.1) + 3{\cdot}8(0.6) = 17.2 Therefore: \text{Cov}(X, Y) = 17.2 - (2.4)(6.8) = 17.2 - 16.32 = 0.88 The positive covariance confirms that more study hours is associated with higher scores.